Crash of Russian Legacy 600
The crash of the Russian Legacy 600 near Tver on August 24, 2023, appears to be a tragic incident involving an Embraer Legacy 600 aircraft associated with Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin. The flight registered as RA-02795 departed from Moscow and experienced a series of dramatic altitude changes and descents before the flight's final moments.
The aircraft's flight path and data were tracked using various methods, including MLAT (Multilateration), due to possible GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) interference or jamming in the area. Multilateration (MLAT) is a technology used in aviation to determine an object's location by analyzing signals received at multiple ground-based receivers. It calculates the object's position based on the time it takes for signals to reach each receiver. This allows accurate tracking, even when the object lacks its positioning system or GPS signals are disrupted. MLAT works by triangulating the object's position from the time differences of signal arrival at different receivers. It offers accuracy and resilience to signal interference but requires a network of receivers and an initial estimate of the object's position for optimal functioning. The aircraft was equipped with ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast), which relies on position reports from GNSS sources for precise location reporting. However, even when the aircraft stopped transmitting position information, other data such as altitude, speed, vertical rate, and autopilot settings were still being broadcast.
The available data shows that the aircraft's flight profile leveled off at 28,000 feet at 15:10 UTC, then continued in level flight until 15:19 UTC. At that point, the vertical rate decreased dramatically, and the aircraft briefly descended before climbing to a maximum altitude of 30,100 feet and subsequently descending back to around 27,500 feet. The aircraft underwent multiple climbs and descents in its final moments, with the last data received at 15:20:14 UTC indicating an altitude of 19,725 feet.
The data suggests a series of significant altitude changes and fluctuations in the aircraft's vertical rate during its final moments. The exact cause of these maneuvers and the subsequent crash would require a thorough investigation by aviation authorities.
Many have speculated that the cause of the crash was a surface-to-air missile. Various other factors, including pilot actions, instrumentation issues, weather conditions, system malfunctions, human factors, mechanical failures, and external factors, could influence the altitude deviations and steep descent before an aircraft crash. A comprehensive investigation is necessary to determine the specific cause, considering data from flight recorders, radar, and maintenance records. Structural failure (caused by an S-400 143 kg high explosive fragmentation warhead?) is one possible factor, but all potential influences should be considered in the analysis. A detailed examination of the wreckage could put the case to rest. To paraphrase Orwell, those who control the accident investigation control the findings.
UPDATE: 15 Oct
President Vladimir Putin has put forth an interesting theory regarding the tragic plane crash that claimed the life of Yevgeny Prigozhin on August 23, just outside Moscow. While the prevailing narrative in both Western and Russian media has leaned towards explanations involving anti-air missiles or planted bombs, President Putin offered a different perspective during a recent annual meeting of the Valdai Club in Sochi. He suggested that Prigozhin and his associates may have consumed alcohol or even narcotics, leading them to engage in reckless behavior involving grenades.
Bloomberg, which reported on these unexpected remarks, quoted President Putin as saying that pieces of a grenade were found in the bodies of Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and other mercenary leaders who died in a plane crash. He further hinted that the man who led an armed revolt against the Kremlin’s military leadership had been a drug user.
Added to the list of safety tips for breakaway military commanders who lead coup attempts against President Putin: don’t get drunk and play with hand grenades on the plane. (This falls well below; don’t fly into Russian surface to air WEZ in your corporate jet.)
